Date: 4/20/24 6:32 pm From: Lucy & Bob Email via groups.io <RobertADuncan...> Subject: [ALbirds] Birding prospects
Hi all,
A front is due tonight, so what does that mean to us at the height of Spring migration? Launch conditions in Yucatan are favorable with no storms present and light winds. Don't be fooled by maps showing winds out of the north on the northern Yucatan Peninsula. That is the sea breeze effect due to hot temps over land and the N winds do not extend well into the Gulf where the prevailing E or SE winds take over. Apparently birds have learned this long ago.
A front is entering the Gulf tonight and will be in the N Gulf by morning. Any incoming flights should meet head winds well offshore before they reach land. This should be a factor that will bring some birds down to the traps. However, the rain and thunderstorms predicted for tomorrow morning and afternoon will not extend far into the Gulf, so a classic fallout should not be expected. The SE winds birds will encounter tonight are not strong and should not be a significant factor vectoring birds toward the TX-LA coast, giving us a better chance for migrants.
Winds increase out of the N Sunday night and Monday and the front is forecast to reach the S Gulf. This MAY impeded movements N for Monday but this late in the season birds in a rush to establish territories may throw caution to the winds and take off anyhow, in which case we will see more birds at the traps.
For Wednesday and the remainder of the week, migration conditions return to normal. That's my best guess as to what may transpire.
Now if BirdCast would show us what's coming in from the Gulf, guessing would not be necessary.
Good Birding,
Bob DuncanGulf Breeze, FL.
